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Energy, Cities and Scenarios
Shell has been developing scenarios to explore the future since the early 1970s. Scenarios are stories that consider “what if?” questions. Whereas forecasts focus on probabilities, scenarios consider a range of plausible futures and how these could emerge from the realities of today. They recognise that people hold beliefs and make choices that lead to outcomes.
Our scenarios team considers changes such as in the global economic environment, geopolitics, resource stresses such as water, greenhouse gases, and energy supply and demand to help business leaders make better decisions.
Since 2012, Shell and Singapore’s Centre for Liveable Cities (CLC) have collaborated on a range of areas – including research, publications and events on urban management and solutions.
CLC is a policy oriented thought centre on urban governance and management set up by the Singapore Government. It seeks to distil and develop Singapore’s experience and expertise in urban management, facilitate the sharing of best practices and learning among cities in the region and globally, and to undertake research.
Both Shell and CLC recognise the challenges of urbanisation, which include ageing populations, extreme weather conditions, and growing resource constraints. At the same time, opportunities abound in cities that want to become more liveable, sustainable, and competitive.
For many years, Shell has used scenario planning to enhance business decisions and our ability to respond to change. Through our collaborative research efforts with CLC, Shell hopes to deepen our understanding of urban development pathways and their impact on the world's energy needs, and contribute positively to the global debate on energy and the environment.
In June 2014, Shell had the global launch of its latest publication “New Lenses on Future Cities” at the World Cities Summit in Singapore. Exploring the energy implications of urbanisation, the report defines different city archetypes, considers their evolution and reviews the conditions which shape how urban environments respond to change. A chapter on Singapore, co-authored with Singapore’s Centre for Liveable Cities, details Singapore’s journey to being densely populated and liveable.
New Lenses on Future Cities is the first in a series of supplements to the New Lens Scenarios published by Shell in March 2013.
Shell is Patron Sponsor and CLC Knowledge Partner of the World Cities Summit (WCS), held in Singapore in 2012 and 2014.
The biennial WCS is an exclusive and premier platform for government leaders and industry experts to address the challenges of liveable and sustainable cities, share integrated urban solutions, and forge new partnerships. WCS is held in conjunction with the Singapore International Water Week (SIWW) and CleanEnviro Summit.
In 2014, Shell spoke on a broad range of topics covering energy, cities and scenarios, as well as water in the energy industry. Speakers included Wim Thomas, Shell’s Chief Energy Adviser, and Frank Niele, Shell’s Principal Consultant Product Supply, Shell Global Solutions.